Tellimer Sovereign Probability of Default: 51 new countries, now covering 136 sovereigns
We've expanded Tellimer's Sovereign Probability of Default model from 85 countries to 136. That brings major economies such as India and Thailand, unrated sovereigns such as Algeria, and less-covered markets including Zimbabwe and Tonga into one common, comparable credit risk framework, with a forward-looking read on credit risk even where there is no bond price or rating to go on.
✨ What's new
- 51 new countries: Coverage grows from 85 to 136 sovereigns, from large economies to frontier and small-island markets that few credit models reach.
- A signal where markets and ratings are silent: Many of the new countries have no traded Eurobond, so no liquid price reflecting their creditworthiness, and often no credit rating either. The model gives you a continuous, forward-looking measure of their sovereign credit risk.
- One framework, every country: All 136 sovereigns are scored on the same methodology, so you can compare risk directly across the whole universe.
- Clear about what it measures: For countries without a traded Eurobond, the output measures financial vulnerability rather than the probability of default on a specific security, giving you a consistent basis for comparison where market prices or ratings are unavailable.
💡 Why it matters
- A warning more than a year early: By October 2020, Tellimer's estimated probability of default for Malawi was above 50%, peaking at around 71% in April 2021. The IMF moved Malawi from moderate to high risk of debt distress, and judged its debt unsustainable under current policies, in November 2021.
- An independent check on your own view: Benchmark your sovereign risk calls against a quantitative signal, spot where economic risk is rising or falling, and compare exposures across a broader global universe.
- Coverage where data is thin: Build country watchlists, review underwriting or lending limits, and decide when a market needs deeper analysis, even where bond prices or ratings are unavailable.
- Complements, not replaces: Use it alongside CDS and bond spreads (where relevant), agency ratings and IMF analysis.